According to IDF Home Front Commander General Eyal Eisenberg, the upheavals in the Arab World and current diplomatic crisis with Turkey could possibly lead to a regional war.
In a speech given this week at the National Institute for Security Studies in Tel Aviv, Eisenberg outlined his expectations in the region, which included an “all-out war” that would be caused by a “radical Islamic winter” in reaction to or following the ongoing revolutions in Arab states and the war of words between Turkey and Israel.
The IDF officer also revealed sensitive information that raised the ire of the IDF and other branches of military intelligence, namely the Shin Bet and Mossad. The information was the type of weaponry that in Gaza that is considerably more advanced than the in past and led to new required residents of the southern region to hide under two roofs rather than one.
Eisenberg also gave an overview of current events, such as Iran not following IAEA guidelines and relentlessly pursuing nuclear energy and a new security situation in Egypt due to the revolution, namely the inability of the Egyptian army and police to control the Sinai and likelihood of an Al-Qaeda branch controlling the area, creating a region of lawlessness and a springboard for terrorist attacks. He also pointed out that Hezbollah has expanded its power in Lebanon, slowly taking over the government as well as the situation with Turkey.
When asked, Eisenberg provided his definition of an Islamic winter as the total subjugation of the Arab world by Islamist leaders, whose rhetoric would likely lead to war and involve the use of WMDs on top of frozen economic and strategic ties with Israel.
The security establishment was puzzled by the remarks and said Eisenberg should not have said anything, claiming the remarks expose weaknesses to the Palestinian Authority. However, his remarks were approved by IDF censorship officials.
Eisenberg did not mention other states that have been problematic in recent history, such as Uganda and Sudan and if the Islamicization of those countries could lead to further conflicts in the region.