In a detailed report on the long term consequences of an Israeli attack on Iran, the Oxford Research Group has concluded that, in the end, the only way to prevent a nuclear Iran is to treat a nuclear Iran as inevitable, and follow it with a “process of balanced regional de-nuclearisation.” In other words, the only way to prevent a nuclear Iran is for Israel to give up nuclear weapons after Iran becomes a nuclear power herself.
The Oxford Research Group, it should be noted, promotes exclusively non-violent solutions to conflict. The group warns that an Israeli attack on Iran would trigger a long, drawn out war and fail to prevent the Islamic State from eventually acquiring a nuclear arsenal in the first place, concluding decisively that military action should be ruled out as a response to Iran’s “possible nuclear weapons ambitions.”
“An Israeli attack on Iran would be the start of a protracted conflict that would be unlikely to prevent the eventual acquisition of nuclear weapons by Iran and might even encourage it,” the report said.
The report continued, “Long-range strike aircraft acquired from the United States, combined with an improved fleet of tanker aircraft, the deployment of long-range drones and the probable availability of support facilities in northeast Iraq and Azerbaijan, all increase Israel’s potential for action against Iran,” hinting that Israel does have the ability to attack if it so chooses.
Concerning the logistics of an attack, the Oxford group wrote that military action would include direct bombing of Tehran, attempts to assassinate scientists and technocrats, bombing of factories, research centers, and even university labs in an attempt to cripple Iranian scientific infrastructure.
This, according to the report’s assessment, would lead to Tehran sprinting towards building a nuclear arsenal to prevent further attacks and a long, drawn out missile war between the two countries, leaving the only plausible option to be balanced regional de-nuclearisation.
To date, only one Israeli politician, Moshe Feiglin, has been recorded as saying that failing to attack Iran before it becomes a nuclear power would lead to Israel’s eventual forced nuclear disarmament. His words are now being echoed in the international community.